Why revived China-Philippine talks won’t lead to energy cooperation in the South China Sea
Ferdinand Marcos Jnr says a reset in the fractious relationship is under way but observers aren’t so sure
The foreign ministry consultations were held for the first time in three years while the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea last convened in January 2025. The mechanism was expected to be held twice a year when it was launched in 2017.
With the Philippines running short of fuel, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr told Bloomberg on Tuesday that the conflict in the Middle East might help Manila and Beijing jump-start their oil and gas project in the South China Sea.
He also said a reset of ties with China was “happening now”.
The comments swerve from the Marcos administration’s defiant policy on its maritime disputes with Beijing.
China and the Philippines have overlapping claims in the South China Sea and have clashed over control of a number of maritime features, including Scarborough and Sabina shoals.
Most recently, the Chinese navy said on Saturday that one of its Type 054A frigates was “dangerously approached” by a Philippine Navy ship on Wednesday during a “routine patrol” near Subi Reef.
Beijing and Manila accused each other of making “unsafe and unprofessional manoeuvres” in the incident.
And on Sunday, the People’s Liberation Army Southern Theatre Command conducted combat readiness patrols involving naval and air forces near Scarborough Shoal, which China calls Huangyan Island and the Philippines calls Panatag Shoal.
Without naming the Philippines, the command said it had stepped up patrols in response to “various infringement and provocative acts”. State media reported on Friday that newly commissioned ships in the command, including the Type 052D guided-missile destroyer Loudi and Type 075 amphibious assault ship Hubei, conducted combat training recently.
The Chinese analysts said these frictions would continue, especially in the run-up to the 10th anniversary in July of a 2016 arbitral decision in The Hague that rejected Beijing’s expansive claims to historical rights over most South China Sea features.
Beijing did not take part in the proceedings and has consistently dismissed the ruling.
03:09
Planned Chinese-built nature reserve latest flashpoint in China-Philippines sea dispute
Bao Yinan, an associate research fellow at the Huayang Centre for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance in Hainan, said Manila could use the 10-year mark as a chance to “make a fuss” about the ruling.
Bao said there had been five reported incidents involving reconnaissance, radar targeting or near-collisions between military aircraft and naval forces in the disputed waters in the past fortnight.
“Frictions and stand-offs at sea will continue unabated, and they will not ease simply because of the conflicts in the Middle East or Marcos’ statement,” Bao said.
01:50
Chinese fighter jet flies close to Philippine plane over disputed shoal in South China Sea, Manila says
Ma Bo, deputy director at Nanjing University’s Collaborative Innovation Centre of South China Sea Studies, said one reason the tensions would continue was Manila’s desire to “underscore its strategic value to Washington through low-intensity skirmishes at sea”.
But it also had ambitions for a seat on the United Nations Security Council next year and so “must also make sure tensions do not spiral out of control”.
Both experts suggested that there was little prospect for joint oil and gas development in the waterway, despite Manila’s quest for alternative energy sources as production from the critical Malampaya gas field declines.
China has urged both sides to “set aside differences and pursue joint development” but repeated past failures and the Philippines’ constitutional restrictions on foreign participation in resource exploration are big obstacles.
A joint exploration agreement reached in 2018 ended with no progress in 2022, and efforts to advance joint exploration backed by Marcos and Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2023 have stalled.
The Philippine Supreme Court also voided a 2005 oil exploration deal with China and Vietnam three years ago.
“Revisiting oil and gas cooperation could help Manila ease bilateral tensions, but this goal is hindered by significant obstacles, including constitutional restrictions, sovereignty sensitivities over disputed waters and political constraints under the US-Philippines alliance,” Ma said.
Bao from Hainan, meanwhile, said it was important for the Chinese government to secure real gains before making any commitments of its own.
“We should listen to what Manila says and observe what it does … In the past, the Philippines has repeatedly extended friendly gestures and proposed talks, but backtracked later,” Bao said.